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Nothing to crow about when one eats crow

March 18th, 2006 at 08:33 pm

Its crunch time for my first predictions. If the market continues to rally next week, then my reading of the tea leaves will be blown out of the water (or I guess tea). These things happen.Sometimes a good one can get away. We will find out soon.

Here is a summary of my journal for near term movements in the NYSE index so far:

Predictions are Based in large part on the Roller Coaster Effect and count of Distribution days among other factors, all discussed in my earlier postings.

Prediction #1, made on 3/10: NYSE will go up 1-2%. NYSE closed that day at 8079.24. 3/16 NYSE: 8271.61. Outcome for prediction #1: This prediction has been slightly exceeded so far to the upside but the NYSE may continue to climb.

Prediction #2 made on 3/15: The NYSE will move sideways or start going down, it is now close to a near term top. NYSE level at close that day 8261.92.
Current outcome: The market continued its upward move 3/16 but not by much and now stands at 8271.61.

A little disclosure on what I currently own:

I am currently invested money markets and short term debt. If the NYSE moves back to its 50 day average, I may commit a trade to a no load equity mutual fund that get returns parallel to that index. I am changing my tune some. The old recent high of the market has been topped in last week's action, a positive development that should not be ignored. The second major advance (started Octoer 19, 2005) of this bull market (started in March 2003) may be refusing to die after all.

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