Its crunch time for my first predictions. If the market continues to rally next week, then my reading of the tea leaves will be blown out of the water (or I guess tea). These things happen.Sometimes a good one can get away. We will find out soon.
Here is a summary of my journal for near term movements in the NYSE index so far:
Predictions are Based in large part on the Roller Coaster Effect and count of Distribution days among other factors, all discussed in my earlier postings.
Prediction #1, made on 3/10: NYSE will go up 1-2%. NYSE closed that day at 8079.24. 3/16 NYSE: 8271.61. Outcome for prediction #1: This prediction has been slightly exceeded so far to the upside but the NYSE may continue to climb.
Prediction #2 made on 3/15: The NYSE will move sideways or start going down, it is now close to a near term top. NYSE level at close that day 8261.92.
Current outcome: The market continued its upward move 3/16 but not by much and now stands at 8271.61.
A little disclosure on what I currently own:
I am currently invested money markets and short term debt. If the NYSE moves back to its 50 day average, I may commit a trade to a no load equity mutual fund that get returns parallel to that index. I am changing my tune some. The old recent high of the market has been topped in last week's action, a positive development that should not be ignored. The second major advance (started Octoer 19, 2005) of this bull market (started in March 2003) may be refusing to die after all.
Nothing to crow about when one eats crow
March 19th, 2006 at 04:33 am
0 Responses to “Nothing to crow about when one eats crow”
Leave a Reply
Supporting Sites: